Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways
نویسندگان
چکیده
Significant effort has gone into identifying and assessing climate change impacts, often within tightly defined sectoral contexts or specific administrative boundaries, for example in national adaptation plans. Interest is now growing among policy makers researchers to better understand the transmission of impacts from one location another. While vulnerability research traditionally failed take such account, a number recent national-level scoping studies have recognized potential significance cross-border impacts. However, these lacked an explicit futures perspective, implicitly assumed static conditions under which impact assessed. This paper addresses this gap by developing scenario-based framework study future using global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply assess Kenya. develop ‘extended SSPs’ combined top-down bottom-up approach implemented through co-production process together with local stakeholders. The element our consists drivers understanding Kenya’s SSPs as common boundary conditions. Finally, extended identified are used stimulate participatory explore evaluate different sets options activities. These future-oriented actions improve Kenyan planning mitigate adapt generated flows.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate Risk Management
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2212-0963']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100311